Three True Outcomes a 'Dunn' Deal

I'm not much of a fan of the so-called sabremetric movement--the new school of baseball thinking that involves weird metrics like VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). It's interesting to look at the timeless game of baseball in a fresh way, but outside of Moneyball, saber-speak doesn't usually make for fun baseball reading.

But here's a fun little taste of baseball research analysis lingo: Three True Outcomes. Today's NY Times, talking about who's dancing around on the hot stove along with Cliff Lee, Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford, mentions big Will Ferrell lookalike Adam Dunn as being the ultimate practicioner of the Three True Outcomes (TTO).

A groundout? Don't bet on it!

The NY Times describes the TTOs as the three batter events that do not involve the defense at all: strikeouts (Dunn had 199 last year. 199! That's even more than David Wright and his Golden Sombrero!), walks (he had 77), and home runs (Dunn walloped 38).

Those three potential outcomes accounted for a whopping 48.5% of Dunn's at bats last year.

The coming weeks will reveal which team grabs Dunn--and his knack for true outcomes.